{
  "status": "synthetic",
  "provenance": "Independent channel cohorts and descriptive timing summaries, guided by the historical repeat-order investigation.",
  "definitions": {
    "cohort": "First-order customers, each with complete 60-day follow-up. Channel groups are mutually exclusive in this reconstruction.",
    "milestones": "Second, third and fourth order within 60 days are nested counts. Second order by day 30 is a separate monitoring goal; fourth by day 60 is not necessarily a subset of second by day 30.",
    "transitions": "First\u2192second uses all first-order users; second\u2192third uses second-order users; third\u2192fourth uses third-order users. Each is a within-60-day conditional conversion, not a treatment effect.",
    "timing": "Percentiles of days since first purchase among customers who eventually reach four orders within 60 days. This selected population cannot represent timing or conversion for all new customers.",
    "intervention": "Day 30/40/60 watch points are monitoring proposals, not proof that forcing those milestones causes retention. The historical push-test uplift is not reproduced without sufficient design and denominator detail."
  },
  "channels": [
    {
      "channel": "Store acquisition",
      "first_order_users": 120000,
      "second_by_30": 16000,
      "second_by_60": 20000,
      "third_by_60": 12000,
      "fourth_by_60": 6000,
      "first_to_second": 0.16666666666666666,
      "second_to_third": 0.6,
      "third_to_fourth": 0.5
    },
    {
      "channel": "App discovery",
      "first_order_users": 80000,
      "second_by_30": 28000,
      "second_by_60": 40000,
      "third_by_60": 24000,
      "fourth_by_60": 12000,
      "first_to_second": 0.5,
      "second_to_third": 0.6,
      "third_to_fourth": 0.5
    },
    {
      "channel": "Partner referral",
      "first_order_users": 60000,
      "second_by_30": 19000,
      "second_by_60": 26000,
      "third_by_60": 15600,
      "fourth_by_60": 7800,
      "first_to_second": 0.43333333333333335,
      "second_to_third": 0.6,
      "third_to_fourth": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "completer_timing": [
    {
      "percentile": 0.5,
      "second_order_day": 9,
      "third_order_day": 21,
      "fourth_order_day": 33
    },
    {
      "percentile": 0.65,
      "second_order_day": 12,
      "third_order_day": 27,
      "fourth_order_day": 40
    },
    {
      "percentile": 0.8,
      "second_order_day": 17,
      "third_order_day": 35,
      "fourth_order_day": 49
    },
    {
      "percentile": 0.9,
      "second_order_day": 22,
      "third_order_day": 41,
      "fourth_order_day": 56
    }
  ],
  "completer_count": 25800
}