{ "status": "synthetic", "provenance": "Independent invented aggregate comparisons; historical decks provide the analytical questions and reported operational sequence only.", "definitions": { "population": "Previous purchasers with no order in the prior 30 days; return means an order within 7 days of offer assignment in this reconstruction.", "sensitivity": "Four prior-behavior sensitivity bands; no protected attributes. The sensitivity and basket-value analyses use separate example populations and must not be added.", "control_adjustment": "Scale holdout returns and platform subsidy cost by offered users / holdout users; subtract from offered totals. This estimate assumes comparable groups. Original allocation and uncertainty are unavailable, so it is not a certified causal effect.", "cost": "Total platform subsidy CU in the follow-up, including background subsidy in both arms. Merchant contribution is excluded from platform cost, not assumed to disappear from total business cost.", "offers": "Separate parallel strategies sharing one audience-specific holdout. Similar observed return rates do not establish statistical equivalence or non-inferiority.", "scope": "Reconstructed 7-day follow-up is an explicit illustration; it is not inferred as the original company test horizon." }, "sensitivity": [ { "segment": "Low", "holdout_users": 40000, "holdout_returns": 440, "holdout_cost_cu": 880, "offered_users": 60000, "offered_returns": 720, "offered_cost_cu": 4320, "holdout_rate": 0.011, "offered_rate": 0.012, "expected_without_offer": 660.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 60.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 3000.0, "difference_pp": 0.10000000000000009, "extra_per_100k": 100.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 50.0 }, { "segment": "Light", "holdout_users": 60000, "holdout_returns": 780, "holdout_cost_cu": 1560, "offered_users": 90000, "offered_returns": 1620, "offered_cost_cu": 9720, "holdout_rate": 0.013, "offered_rate": 0.018, "expected_without_offer": 1170.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 450.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 7380.0, "difference_pp": 0.49999999999999994, "extra_per_100k": 500.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 16.4 }, { "segment": "Moderate", "holdout_users": 50000, "holdout_returns": 300, "holdout_cost_cu": 600, "offered_users": 75000, "offered_returns": 1050, "offered_cost_cu": 6300, "holdout_rate": 0.006, "offered_rate": 0.014, "expected_without_offer": 450.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 600.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 5400.0, "difference_pp": 0.8, "extra_per_100k": 800.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 9.0 }, { "segment": "High", "holdout_users": 50000, "holdout_returns": 350, "holdout_cost_cu": 700, "offered_users": 75000, "offered_returns": 675, "offered_cost_cu": 4050, "holdout_rate": 0.007, "offered_rate": 0.009, "expected_without_offer": 525.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 150.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 3000.0, "difference_pp": 0.19999999999999993, "extra_per_100k": 200.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 20.0 } ], "offers": [ { "audience": "Lower basket value", "offer": "Lower threshold", "holdout_users": 60000, "holdout_returns": 540, "holdout_cost_cu": 1080, "offered_users": 120000, "offered_returns": 2040, "offered_cost_cu": 10200, "key": 1, "holdout_rate": 0.009, "offered_rate": 0.017, "expected_without_offer": 1080.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 960.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 8040.0, "difference_pp": 0.8000000000000002, "extra_per_100k": 800.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 8.375 }, { "audience": "Lower basket value", "offer": "Higher threshold", "holdout_users": 60000, "holdout_returns": 540, "holdout_cost_cu": 1080, "offered_users": 120000, "offered_returns": 1800, "offered_cost_cu": 10800, "key": 2, "holdout_rate": 0.009, "offered_rate": 0.015, "expected_without_offer": 1080.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 720.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 8640.0, "difference_pp": 0.6, "extra_per_100k": 600.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 12.0 }, { "audience": "Lower basket value", "offer": "Merchant-funded", "holdout_users": 60000, "holdout_returns": 540, "holdout_cost_cu": 1080, "offered_users": 120000, "offered_returns": 1980, "offered_cost_cu": 6930, "key": 3, "holdout_rate": 0.009, "offered_rate": 0.0165, "expected_without_offer": 1080.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 900.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 4770.0, "difference_pp": 0.7500000000000001, "extra_per_100k": 750.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 5.3 }, { "audience": "Higher basket value", "offer": "Lower threshold", "holdout_users": 50000, "holdout_returns": 850, "holdout_cost_cu": 1700, "offered_users": 100000, "offered_returns": 2100, "offered_cost_cu": 25200, "key": 4, "holdout_rate": 0.017, "offered_rate": 0.021, "expected_without_offer": 1700.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 400.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 21800.0, "difference_pp": 0.4, "extra_per_100k": 400.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 54.5 }, { "audience": "Higher basket value", "offer": "Higher threshold", "holdout_users": 50000, "holdout_returns": 850, "holdout_cost_cu": 1700, "offered_users": 100000, "offered_returns": 2300, "offered_cost_cu": 32200, "key": 5, "holdout_rate": 0.017, "offered_rate": 0.023, "expected_without_offer": 1700.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 600.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 28800.0, "difference_pp": 0.5999999999999999, "extra_per_100k": 600.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 48.0 }, { "audience": "Higher basket value", "offer": "Merchant-funded", "holdout_users": 50000, "holdout_returns": 850, "holdout_cost_cu": 1700, "offered_users": 100000, "offered_returns": 2280, "offered_cost_cu": 22800, "key": 6, "holdout_rate": 0.017, "offered_rate": 0.0228, "expected_without_offer": 1700.0, "control_adjusted_returns": 580.0, "control_adjusted_cost_cu": 19400.0, "difference_pp": 0.58, "extra_per_100k": 580.0, "cu_per_estimated_extra_returner": 33.44827586206897 } ] }